Kerry Wins

I've been working on this for awhile. It uses the poll averages from RealClearPolitics and then regenerates an Electorial Vote analysis they did sometime back but don't update. I wrote a program that scrapes their site, regenerates the presentation I liked, and builds a table.

Blogger.com seems to put more padding in the table, somehow, than I would like. I can't get around that yet.

If the poll averages from 10/12 were taken as the final results, Kerry wins a squeaker. How close? NM is a tie and I break the tie in his favor. Without the tie in NM, the EV total is a tie that Bush wins in the House. AFTER the Supreme Court throws out the CO proportional EV ballot measure as a violation of the powers guaranteed a State Legislature by the United States Constitution. Note that this happens where Bush loses OH.

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Assuming all states go as they did last time.
All positive numbers in Democratic direction (worst case, if Bush is leading that is a negative number).
Kerry needs a net increase of 10 EVs over Gore's performance in 2004 to be President.

Blue States				Gore Won
State	Poll Data			2000	Now	Spread vs	EV
	Date	Date	EVs	Results		2000	Pickup
MI	9/22	10/6	17	5.2	2.70	-2.50	0
WA	9/17	10/4	11	5.6	10.30	4.70	0
OR	9/24	10/11	7	0.5	5.50	5.00	0
MN	9/18	10/11	10	2.4	1.00	-1.40	0
ME	9/10	10/5	4	5.1	2.50	-2.60	0
NM	10/1	10/6	5	0.06	0.00	0.00	0
WI	9/22	10/11	10	0.2	-3.00	-3.20	(-10)
PA	10/3	10/11	21	4.2	2.00	-2.20	0
IA	9/27	10/11	7	0.3	1.00	0.70	0
NJ	10/1	10/11	15	15.9	6.00	-9.90	0
Red States				Bush Won
State				2000	Now	Spread vs	EV
				Results		2000	Pickup
MO	9/22	10/5	11	-3.3	-4.00	-0.70	0
OH	10/2	10/11	20	-3.5	2.00	5.50	20
FL	10/1	10/5	27	-0.01	-3.50	-3.40	0
NV	9/18	10/3	5	-3.5	-4.80	-1.30	0
NH	9/27	10/5	4	-1.3	0.70	2.00	4
WV	9/13	9/20	5	-6.3	-3.20	3.10	0
CO	10/3	10/7	9	-8.4	-5.60	2.80	0
		Projected Evs		Bush Loses
Kerry		274
Bush		264