Latest: Bush in a Squeaker

This has Bush losing OH and NH but winning by picking up NM, IA, and HI. The big suprise is HI, of course. Notably absent in this round of polls is WI which has usually shown up in the Bush column.

Assuming all states go as they did last time.
All positive numbers in Democratic direction (worst case).
Kerry must gain 10 net EVs from Gore's performance to win.

Blue States				Gore Won
State	Poll Data			2000	Now	Spread vs	EV
	Date	Date	EVs	Results		2000	Pickup
MI	10/20	10/29	17	5.2	3.30	-1.90	0
OR	10/19	10/27	7	0.5	4.70	4.20	0
MN	10/19	10/28	10	2.4	1.70	-0.70	0
ME	10/17	10/22	4	5.1	8.50	3.40	0
NM	10/15	10/29	5	0.06	-4.00	-4.06	(5)
WI	10/23	10/29	10	0.2	1.00	0.80	0
PA	10/22	10/29	21	4.2	2.90	-1.30	0
IA	10/23	10/29	7	0.3	-1.70	-2.00	(7)
NJ	10/16	10/25	15	15.9	4.00	-11.90	0
HI	10/13	10/20	4	18.3	-0.90	-19.20	(4)
Red States				Bush Won
State				2000	Now	Spread vs	EV
				Results		2000	Pickup
MO	10/22	10/26	11	-3.3	-4.70	-1.40	0
OH	10/20	10/29	20	-3.5	1.20	4.70	20
FL	10/21	10/29	27	-0.01	-1.70	-1.60	0
NV	10/19	10/29	5	-3.5	-3.70	-0.20	0
NH	10/14	10/27	4	-1.3	2.70	4.00	4
WV	10/13	10/18	5	-6.3	-4.00	2.30	0
AR	10/18	10/25	6	-5.4	-3.00	2.50	0
CO	10/14	10/29	9	-8.4	-5.20	3.20	0
		Projected Evs		Bush wins.
Kerry		268
Bush		270

I continue to believe that Kerry needs everything to break his way, but it doesn't get closer than this.