Last few days
I think the Osama tape will hurt Kerry. I found this exchange on the Kerry Spot.
ALAN COLMES: "It's not like he [Osama bin Laden] had a Kerry-Edward bumper sticker in his cave."
NEIL CAVUTO: "But he's all but doing that, isn't he? I thought I saw a button."
Ok, a little over the top but basically about right.
More EV Analysis:
There are basically 4 big states in play: FL, PA, OH, MI. If Bush wins any two he wins and doesn't need anything else. If he only wins FL he almost certainly wins. If he wins only OH he needs about an even split elsewhere. If he only wins MI (a crazy outcome) he has to take everything else.
Starting with RealClearPolitics current map (Bush 232 Kerry 207) I take HI from Kerry's assumed total and put it in the toss up category. (Current RCP results have Bush with a lead in HI).
Bush needs another 37pts to win. If he takes FL (27) he needs only one of the following combinations: OH, MN, WI, IA + NH, IA + HI. Basically, Kerry has to run the board.
If you swap OH and FL then Bush needs IA and either MN or WI. (There are other options, NH + HI > IA for example).
posted by john @ 6:19 PM
2 comments
2 Comments:
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
I deleted a post which linked to E J Dionne in its entirety, arguing that Bush was not a divider. This was prompted by me saying that, basically, Osama supported Kerry.
[See: http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/editorial/outlook/2878653]
Osama did support Kerry. That is not to claim that Kerry supports Osama, I’m quite confident Kerry would shoot him personally if given a chance. But sometimes looking at who your enemies prefer is a good way to judge an issue.
I don’t tend to respect E J Dionne. He writes that Bush should have been like Eisenhower. What he doesn’t write explicitly, is that Bush should have abandoned his beliefs in favor of the Democrats in order to buy their loyalty.
That price is too high.
The nation had a right to expect the Democrats to place loyalty to our country ahead of loyalty to their party. They failed to do this.
The Republicans have a very long history of this. Modern Democrats are unable to meet this test.
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